Topic: Nintendo Roadmap Prediction

Nothing major, just watching this video:

Oh my gosh

I know there's differences, but it feels so close...

@Professor_Plumber I feel like he's being a bit harsh on the utility of the Wii U Gamepad. For example, he questions why we need the Gamepad in that baseball tech demo and thinks Nintendo is overcomplicating things. But I would say that's not overcomplicating, it's making the gameplay more realistic and accurate by letting you aim the ball/glove a bit better. That shooter where you could use the Gamepad to zoom in also feels like a good use for it, that would help you with sniping. I think the larger issue is that all they used these for was minigame tech demos and didn't have these kinds of mechanics in more of their 1st party games.

As far as the parallels to now, we are in a similar situation where everyone was expecting a more powerful version of the Switch and now we seem to be shifting to next gen, and a lot of people seem to be in agreement that the console is going to be an upgraded Switch with a gimmick. However, there's some differences that you can point at and think maybe the next gen device isn't headed for a similar fate.

For one, the Wii was much more dependent on blue ocean demographics for its success, so when they left and the Wii U failed to bring them back, they had basically nothing. The Switch's success, on the other hand, was in doubling down on what's been successful for them in the past and innovating by consolidating it. That's not a concept that people will abandon quickly (or possibly even ever). If they can make a Switch successor that does Switch things (and they most likely will), it should continue to be reasonably successful with the only real danger being if we start to see more hardware developers copy the idea. If whatever they layer onto it fails, then they can just back out and just keep making new games for it similarly to what Nintendo did with the 3DS.

Second, the Wii still had multiple big games coming out late such as Galaxy 2, RtDL, and Skyward Sword and they were trying to sell some big games on the last few years of the Wii while preparing for next gen. On the Switch however, aside from TotK first party support seems to have fizzled out, so if next gen launches in 2024 as predicted, the lineup should look more like the Switch's than the Wii U's.

I also contest the idea the video raised that the console's features have to be utterly essential and something past consoles couldn't do. You'd certainly like to have them and there should still be a few benefits here and there to promote the console, but I think we're mostly past the point where there's totally new and original ideas that a past gen console isn't capable of. Think hard about some of the Switch's exclusives, were features such as the hybrid nature of the console, the Joycon, or HD Rumble necessary for the Switch's games? If they had thought of the Switch exclusives back on the Wii U or even the Wii, would they have been incapable of making those games (short of graphical limitations)? I don't really think so. If they wanted to make games like Mario Odyssey or Smash Ultimate or the Pokemon games on the Wii U in 2012, they probably could've done it. Similarly, I don't think the next gen device needs some revolutionary new feature that nothing before it could've possibly accomplished. It just needs to do something neat and beneficial that differentiates it from the OG Switch while introducing fresh and original ideas that the Switch DIDN'T do, not necessarily COULDN'T do (there's a few IPs they could give new entries to such as 2D Mario, Mario Kart, DK, and Star Fox, they could come up with new IPs, or just come up with new ideas for old IPs such as how 3D Marios are typically very different experiences from each other on different consoles such as 64 vs. Sunshine vs. Galaxy 1/2 vs. 3D Land/3D World vs. Odyssey).

So to summarize, this is all that's really essential to get right at launch:
*Layer a new idea onto the Switch that grabs people's attention and does beneficial things, but isn't necessarily a revolutionary idea that opens up new mechanics never seen before.
*Have a strong lineup of games that differentiate themselves from Switch games, either by having new and original ideas that previous entries on the Switch did not do or by being IPs that did not have an original Switch entry altogether.
*Market the above two points in a way that communicates that this is a new and next gen Switch with unique games that do things that Switch games did not.

That's not a terribly high bar for Nintendo to clear, the only real tough part is that they just need the right idea. If they can get at least that right, then it should have a strong enough start that they'll buy themselves time to get some of the other aspects of the console right.

@Bolt_Strike Replying back now...

Oh for sure, when I rewatch the reveal, I do see all of the potential in it, and it was definitely under-utilized to how it could have been...

Yeah, all of what you said is fair, it's just funny watching this video about that period of time and how similar it is to now...
I mean, the Wii and Switch were/are successes, and the Wii-U was a flop, so I'm praying they did learn from that period to shift successfully to the next generation...

@Professor_Plumber To be fair, we're always going to be in this situation whenever Nintendo has a hugely successful console. Just the price of success.

@Bolt_Strike Yeah that's true, and something I never thought about before...

I would say that Im expecting the next Nintendo console to be a flop. But what Nintendo is doing outside of video games, may help their next console. The theme parks and movies should help them in the next gen.

But, what I do expect? That Nintendo won’t offer backwards compatibility on their next console. Because they are Nintendo after all.

@ZeldaFan83 I mean... It's not a guarantee that they just won't have backwards compatibility on the next hardware because "Nintendo". All their handhelds had backwards compatibility, alongside the Wii and Wii U.
Also, are we starting with the Nintendo is doomed predictions already? I get those predictions are kinda nostalgic now but wait until they announce the console at least. They didn't even had a chance to f*** up yet.

@ZeldaFan83 Nintendo have traditionally been pretty good at backwards compatibility with their handhelds though. The Switch is the first not to offer anything because it’s so different to the 3DS. But up until then, they were compatible with the previous handheld. And even the Wii was initially backwards compatible with the GameCube and Wii U obviously was with the Wii.

@Professor_Plumber The Wii U early days are so weird looking back. Like, I sometimes forget how late Skyward Sword came out to the point they were doing Zelda tech demos for the Wii U and Skyward Sword wasn't out yet. It would be like Nintendo announcing this January the new console, before ToTK was out on Switch and it not coming out until mid 2024.
There is also other stuff like them announcing the Wii U and saying nothing about it for like 6 months. Or New Super Mario Bros U being a thing alongside New Super Mario Bros 2 on 3DS. People sometimes attribute the faliure of Wii U to the name and marketing but there were certaintly other issues with the software as well, specially early on. Can't wait how Scott tackles the early days of the Wii U after it's launch.

Oh I absolutely believe their software choices were an issue. In fact I see one major flaw that really hinders the Wii U's lineup: a lack of open adventure games with a focus on exploration. If you were someone who grew up with games like Mario 64, Mario Sunshine, Banjo Kazooie, OoT, or Metroid Prime, or if you enjoyed more modern experiences like Skyrim on other consoles, you had very little to look forward to on the Wii U, especially in terms of first party. Nintendo really gave this fanbase the middle finger in favor of rehashy level pack sequels to linear platformers from the Wii and 3DS, they seemed to believe that games such as NSMBU, 3D World, Tropical Freeze, and Yoshi's Woolly World were largely sufficient to satisfy the need for adventure games and surprise, surprise, they weren't. They sold decently, but clearly the enthusiasm for retro linear platformers had waned and the lack of a more sandbox style 3D Mario or a Metroid Prime 4 or something else along those lines seems to have taken its toll. Now Nintendo did have BotW planned, but that got delayed into being a cross gen title, and they had XCX, but that was a new and somewhat niche IP (and granted Metroid was niche too, but Xenoblade sells even less than Metroid) and X was a spinoff entry and not a proper sequel. Other than that, all you had was remasters of WW and TP. Not really enough to satisfy that market and I'm guessing that led to a lot of gamers, especially those that frequented more powerful hardware such as Xbox, Playstation, and PC, to believe that the Wii U was a "kiddie console that couldn't run big boy open world games" because they opted to largely ignore almost anything remotely resembling such experiences. And I do think that ultimately hurt Wii U sales. Say what you will about open world being oversaturated now, but there's a reason they're so prevalent. Those types of open experiences just print money. Even back in the N64 days when you only had open area/sandbox stuff like Mario 64, OoT, and Banjo Kazooie, those games were among the best sellers, and that's also true now with more modern open world experiences on the ship. A lot of people just really want to explore large open game worlds in their console games. So I think they made a major mistake in going away from this on the Wii U and I think it cost them. Luckily they rectified this on the Switch. I definitely think Nintendo has a much better understanding of the kinds of experiences their fans want to play with the Switch's lineup.

@Bolt_Strike I don't think it specifically was a lack of open adventure games with a focus on exploration but more of a lack of identity in their games. Think of the biggest Wii U games (specially early on). We have Super Mario 3D Word (similar to Super Mario 3D Land), New Super Mario U (similar to... all the other New Super Mario Bros games), Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze (similar to Donkey Kong Country Returns), Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Wii Party U...
There are exceptions, of course, like Bayo 2, Wonderful 101, Splatoon. But look at the Mario and Zelda games of the system: Super Mario 3D Word and... Zelda remakes (since BoTW came out on Switch too). If you look at all the other Nintendo consoles you can see the biggest games having a distinctive identity and honestly the Wii U was the weakest case of that seeing how similar the games were to Wii and 3DS games.

@jowe_gv Oh yes, that was certainly an issue too. Far too many games that were uncreative sequels of past Wii and 3DS games and that certainly made the lineup unappealing. But often time that doesn't really matter when it comes to sale, I mean the highest selling Switch game is a Wii U port. I think the lack of open adventure games is a larger factor here.

@jowe_gv Yeah it's pretty weird looking back on it now lol

@Bolt_Strike Of course, that the games were uncreative sequels alone didn't ruin the Wii U sales. But a combination of things might. People see a device with the name Wii U with ads focusing on the controller and games that look very similar to Wii games. It didn't help at the very least. If the Wii U launched with games that clearly weren't Wii games it may have done better.

It also looks really weird hearing Nintendo over and over how "creative" they were (specially during the Wii-Wii U era) and they were THAT safe with games with a console like the Wii U.

Genealogy Of The Holy War Echoes
Genealogy Of The Holy War Echoes

I might be delusional in this respect, but I can dream

We’ll see. As much as Nintendo has been anti consumer in the past, they don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt.

@ZeldaFan83 @jowe_gv
Even Nintendo can't screw up BC at this point...
...
Watch this change when it could happen lol

@ZeldaFan83 if we use precedent from Nintendo it makes even less sense what you are saying since all their handhelds had backwards compatibility as well as the Wii and Wii U.

I'm not even saying that it is a guarantee that it will have BC, just that it is not confirmed that it won't "because Nintendo".

@jowe_gv Agreed on all counts. And I do think having more open area adventure games could've helped with this too. You didn't have experiences like BotW or Odyssey or Skyrim on the Wii. I think a better lineup could've at least pushed it into GC or even N64 levels of sales.